Global trade is projected to reach a record $33 trillion in 2024, marking a $1 trillion increase and a 3.3% annual growth rate, according to the latest World Trade Update by UNCTAD.
This $1 trillion boost, which represents a 3.3% yearly growth rate, demonstrates how resilient international trade is in the face of ongoing difficulties.
Half of the expansion was due to strong growth in services trade, which increased by 7% year over year. Goods trade increased by 2% but was still below its 2022 peak.
Possibilities in the face of uncertainty
In 2024, developing economies—which have historically been major forces behind international commerce—faced challenges as South-South trade fell by the same amount in the third quarter and imports shrank by 1%.
Developed economies, on the other hand, drove Q3 growth, with stable demand fueling a 2% increase in exports and a 3% increase in imports.
There are still chances for emerging economies to profit from high-growth industries in spite of these obstacles. The third quarter of 2024 saw a 13% gain in the ICT sector and a 14% increase in the apparel sector.
The potential for diversification and entry into value-added businesses is shown by this increase. In 2025, there is also an opportunity to strengthen resilience due to stable global growth projections and declining inflation.
Growth opportunities and sectoral pressures
Traditional industries that are vital to developing countries saw decreases, whereas ICT and clothing showed significant progress. Metals trade shrank 3% on a quarterly and yearly basis, while energy commerce declined 2% for the quarter and 7% for the year. Despite a 3% decline in Q3, the automotive industry is predicted to increase by a modest 4% year-end.
An appeal for calculated action
In order to reduce risks, UNCTAD encourages developing nations to implement focused policies that improve trade diversification and make investments in high-value industries.
“Sustainable development still relies heavily on trade,” stated UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan.
Concerned economies need to understand this making risk management interventions complementary to diversification of their connective network with global markets to seize opportunities in 2025.
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