However, in 2026, Ti forecasts that North America will be the biggest e-commerce logistics market, with the US, Canada and Mexico all experiencing nominal 2021-26 CAGR above the global average.
There are expectations that the Asia Pacific’s market growth will be affected by both the Chinese and the South Korean market’s 2021-26 CAGR slowing down below not only the global average but the regional average of 6.7% too. Their percentage of online retail sales as a percentage of total sales, at 28.0% and 24.5% respectively, are testimony of mature markets. In addition, the parcel pricing war we’ve seen in China has hampered overall growth. However, the two countries will remain amongst the biggest e-commerce logistics markets globally on the back of a high number of e-shoppers.
A similar situation is likely to happen with the UK’s e-commerce market, with online sales as a percentage of total retail sales standing at 26.6% as of December 2021 as reported by the UK Office of National Statistics. The UK’s e-commerce logistics market is also expected to be affected by Brexit too over the next five years, but it will maintain its place as the third e-commerce logistics market globally after the United States and China.
Ti’s new research also shows for the first time the growth of the developing cross-border e-commerce logistics market, which is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 10.65% from 2021-2026. This growth is expected to continue as consumers seek luxury goods that may not be available within their own countries. However headwinds remain, particularly in terms of compliance with tax and customs regimes surrounding cross-border movements.
The new report also highlights how the e-commerce logistics market is broken down between e-fulfilment and last mile delivery services. In 2021 the global e-fulfilment market was valued at €235.42bn and represented a total of 46.8% of the market. Whereas the larger last mile market had a total value of €253.10bn and constituted the other 53.2% of the market.
Ti’s latest report also drills down further in to the e-fulfilment market, highlighting the structural changes which have taken hold since the beginning of the pandemic. Showing how fulfilment service providers from LSPs to software providers have broadened their service offering to capture more of the e-commerce value chain.
Ti’s Head of Commercial Development, Michael Clover, said: “In 2021 e-commerce has been one of the key growth sectors for logistics and we’ve seen some spectacular revenue growth from individual service providers.
Overall growth has slowed since 2020, with growth levelling off as the extraordinary conditions for e-commerce growth brought about by the pandemic unwind, but growth is still above pre-pandemic levels. The forecast out to 2026 portrays a maturing market where online retail penetration levels are sustained in the most mature markets between 25-30% and other markets move up to this level.”
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