Geneva, December 10, 2025 — Africa’s logistics sector is preparing for unprecedented expansion in 2026, with air freight and passenger connectivity expected to surge faster than any other global region.
However, the continent’s aviation and supply chain operators continue to face profit margins well below international benchmarks, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
IATA forecasts that Africa will achieve 6.0% passenger growth in 2026, surpassing the global average of 4.9%. Air cargo volumes are projected to increase by 2%, though this trails the worldwide rate of 2.6%.
The expansion signals rising demand for cross-border trade facilitation, e-commerce distribution, and regional supply chain connectivity. However, logistics operators warn that growth in freight volumes has not translated into improved financial performance.
African aviation and logistics businesses are expected to generate just $200 million in combined net profit during 2026 — representing a 1.3% margin, the thinnest of any world region. Per-passenger profitability stands at only $1.30, compared to the global benchmark of $7.90.
Kamil Al-Awadhi, IATA’s Regional Vice President for Africa and the Middle East, emphasized that demand growth alone cannot sustain the sector. “Logistics networks in Africa are expanding rapidly, but operators face cost structures that severely limit profitability and operational efficiency,” he stated.
African freight and passenger carriers operate under some of the most challenging cost conditions globally:
Additionally, infrastructure gaps and regulatory barriers constrain network efficiency. Only 19% of intra-African routes offer direct connectivity, forcing freight shipments and passenger traffic through inefficient hub-and-spoke models that increase transit times and costs.
Africa accounts for 79% of all airline funds blocked worldwide — totaling $954 million of a global $1.2 billion. Algeria has emerged as the largest market where repatriation restrictions prevent operators from accessing revenues, creating cash flow challenges for logistics providers serving regional trade corridors.
Despite current pressures, Africa’s logistics and aviation sector is forecast to grow 4.1% annually over the next two decades, reaching 411 million passengers by 2044 — the third-fastest expansion rate globally.
Progress on visa liberalization is improving cross-border logistics:
These policy shifts are expected to accelerate trade flows, supply chain integration, and e-commerce distribution networks across the continent.
IATA called on African governments to treat aviation logistics as economic infrastructure rather than revenue-generating assets. The organization outlined four priorities:
“Africa’s logistics sector could handle over 400 million passengers and significantly higher cargo volumes by 2044,” Al-Awadhi noted.
“Realizing this potential requires governments to address cost structures, upgrade infrastructure, and remove regulatory barriers.
Aviation is not just transport — it’s a critical enabler of trade, manufacturing, and economic integration.”
The report underscores that while Africa’s logistics growth trajectory remains strong, structural reforms are essential to transform rising demand into sustainable profitability and enhanced regional supply chain performance.
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