The conventional wisdom of “college equals success” is facing its most significant challenge in decades.
As unemployment rates for recent college graduates hover at troubling levels and student debt soars, a growing number of Gen Z Americans are turning their backs on traditional four-year degrees and picking up welding torches, electrical tools, and construction equipment instead.
The statistics paint a stark picture of a generation recalibrating its relationship with higher education.
Colleges and universities collectively experienced a 15% decline in enrollment between 2010 and 2021, with undergraduate enrollment totaling 19.28 million students in Fall 2024—down 8.43% from peak enrollment in 2010.
Even more telling, experts project a 15 percent decline in U.S. college students between 2025 and 2029, a phenomenon researchers have dubbed the “enrollment cliff.”
Meanwhile, the skilled trades are experiencing a renaissance. Enrollment at two-year vocational public schools has increased by about 20% since 2020, a net increase of over 850,000 students.
This shift represents more than just changing enrollment patterns—it’s a fundamental reimagining of the American Dream.
Chase Gallagher embodies this new paradigm. At 24, he runs his own business and has no intention of pursuing a college degree.
“I’m not going to go stop my business and pay for college,” Gallagher explains, representing a growing cohort of young entrepreneurs who see opportunity where others see obstacles.
The appeal is understandable. With demand for jobs like HVAC technicians, electricians and wind turbine installers, enrollment is ticking up at vocational schools as four-year college costs continue to soar.
These aren’t just jobs—they’re careers with clear pathways to middle-class stability and, in many cases, exceptional earning potential.
The movement has gained such momentum that 42 percent of Gen Z are working in or pursuing a blue-collar or skilled trade job, including 37 percent of those with a bachelor’s degree.
Perhaps most surprisingly, even college graduates are making the switch, recognizing that their degrees haven’t delivered the promised economic security.
For decades, the “college premium”—the earnings advantage of college graduates over high school graduates—served as the primary justification for higher education investment. That premium is now virtually extinct for many young workers.
Recent data reveals a troubling reality: Gen Z men with college degrees now face the same unemployment rates as their non-college-educated peers.
Conditions remained challenging for recent college graduates during the second quarter of 2025, with the unemployment rate averaging 5.3 percent and the underemployment rate holding steady at just over 41 percent.
This means that nearly half of recent graduates are either unemployed or working in jobs that don’t require their degrees—a sobering return on a four-year investment that often exceeds $100,000.
The situation is particularly acute for certain demographics. While young men are outperforming previous generations by several measures, they continue to face challenges, especially in labor force participation. This has led many to question whether the traditional college path remains viable.
Part of the appeal of skilled trades lies in their immunity to many of the economic pressures affecting white-collar work.
Trade jobs have been rebranded as a shortcut to six-figure salaries, without student debt, and immunity from automation.
While this optimistic view requires some scrutiny, the underlying demand for skilled trades workers remains robust.
The infrastructure needs of a growing economy, combined with an aging workforce in many trades, has created what economists call a “skills gap”—more available jobs than qualified workers.
This dynamic gives young people entering these fields significant leverage in terms of wages and working conditions.
Labor economists and education experts are divided on the long-term implications of this trend.
Some see it as a natural market correction after decades of over-credentialism, while others worry about the potential consequences for individual earnings and economic mobility.
The shift isn’t without its complexities. While trade jobs offer immediate entry into the workforce and often competitive starting salaries, career progression and long-term earning potential can vary significantly by field and region.
Additionally, many trades face cyclical employment patterns tied to economic conditions.
The enrollment challenges facing higher education extend beyond individual choice to demographic reality.
The percentage of Americans with a bachelor’s degree or higher is now 37.5%, up from 25.6% in 2000, suggesting that the market may simply be oversaturated with college graduates.
This oversaturation coincides with what demographers call the “demographic cliff”—a significant decline in the number of traditional college-age Americans due to lower birth rates following the 2008 financial crisis.
The result is fewer potential students competing for the same number of college spots, while simultaneously facing a job market that may not require the credentials they’re pursuing.
Despite the enthusiasm surrounding the skilled trades, the transition isn’t without obstacles.
A recent DEWALT study explored Gen Z’s commitment to skilled trades and identified obstacles that might stand in the way of establishing a lifelong career in these fields.
Physical demands, workplace safety concerns, and the need for continuous skill updates as technology evolves are all factors that young people must consider.
Additionally, some experts warn that Gen Z could be walking into a trap if they assume all trade jobs offer the same security and earning potential.
The shift from degrees to welding torches represents more than just an employment trend—it signals a broader reevaluation of what constitutes a successful career path.
For a generation that witnessed the 2008 financial crisis during their formative years and entered the job market during a global pandemic, traditional markers of success may seem less reliable than practical skills and entrepreneurial opportunities.
Gen Z men, regardless of education level, are significantly more likely than women to move to blue-collar careers, suggesting that gender continues to play a role in career choices.
However, the overall trend toward skilled trades represents a more inclusive vision of middle-class prosperity—one that doesn’t require a four-year degree as an entry fee.
As colleges and universities grapple with declining enrollment and mounting questions about their value proposition, the young Americans choosing vocational training over lecture halls may be onto something.
They’re betting that in an economy increasingly divided between high-skill knowledge work and automation-resistant trades, the middle path of skilled manual labor offers the most reliable route to economic security.
The question isn’t whether this trend will continue—the demographic and economic forces driving it are too powerful to reverse quickly.
Instead, the question is whether America’s educational and economic institutions can adapt quickly enough to serve a generation that’s already rewriting the rules of career success, one welding torch at a time.
Time will tell whether Gen Z’s embrace of the skilled trades proves to be a wise adaptation to changing economic realities or a missed opportunity for long-term economic mobility.
What’s clear is that for many young Americans, the path to prosperity no longer runs through a college campus—it runs through a vocational training center, and the destination is a workshop floor rather than a corner office.
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