Can the U.S. Save AGOA? Analysts Push for Extension Amid Mounting Economic Risks

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The clock is ticking for the United States to decide the fate of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) — a landmark trade initiative that, for more than two decades, has defined U.S.–Africa economic relations.

With the program’s expiration on September 30, 2025, uncertainty looms over thousands of African exporters, investors, and policymakers.

As Washington debates the next move, analysts warn that the delay in renewing AGOA could deal a severe blow to Africa’s manufacturing sectors, disrupt trade flows, and weaken America’s strategic influence across the continent.

The question now is whether the U.S. can — and will — save AGOA before lasting damage

is done.

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A Pillar of U.S.–Africa Trade Policy

Enacted in 2000, AGOA grants duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products from eligible sub-Saharan African countries.

It was designed to spur industrialization, boost exports, and deepen economic ties between the U.S. and Africa.

Over the years, the initiative has helped create millions of jobs in industries such as textiles, apparel, automotive components, and agriculture.

Countries like Kenya, Lesotho, Ethiopia, and Madagascar have particularly benefited, developing export-driven manufacturing sectors that rely heavily on AGOA preferences.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), while AGOA has had uneven results across countries, it has been “a cornerstone of U.S.–Africa economic engagement,” fostering trade worth over $10 billion annually in non-oil exports.

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Expiration and Political Gridlock

Despite broad bipartisan support in past years, AGOA’s reauthorization has stalled in 2025. The program officially expired at the end of September, after the U.S. Congress failed to pass the proposed AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024.

The Trump administration has signaled tentative support for a one-year extension as a temporary fix, but no legislation has been approved.

Analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) describe the current moment as “the most uncertain period for AGOA since its inception.”

Experts argue that political polarization in Washington, combined with shifting trade priorities, has pushed Africa off the legislative agenda.

“If the U.S. is serious about maintaining its partnership with Africa, it must act swiftly,” warns CSIS senior fellow Judd Devermont. “Each month of delay erodes trust and disrupts supply chains that took years to build.”

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Economic Risks Mount for Africa

The economic implications of AGOA’s lapse are already being felt across Africa. Exporters, particularly in the apparel and agriculture sectors, face immediate tariff barriers, shrinking profit margins, and growing uncertainty from U.S. buyers.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) warns that the suspension of AGOA could jeopardize millions of jobs, especially among women and young workers employed in export industries.

In Kenya, for example, textile factories that depend on U.S. orders have begun scaling back production in anticipation of reduced demand.

“AGOA is more than a trade deal; it’s a development tool,” said Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi, former UNCTAD Secretary-General. “Its uncertainty sends the wrong message at a time when Africa is striving to industrialize and integrate its economies under the AfCFTA framework.”

Reuters reports that exporters are already facing a “double hit” — not only from the loss of AGOA preferences but also from new U.S. tariffs affecting certain imports. This combination threatens to erode Africa’s competitiveness just as global supply chains are reconfiguring post-pandemic.

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Strategic Stakes for the U.S.

Beyond economics, many analysts believe AGOA carries strategic importance for the United States in a rapidly changing global landscape.

With China, the EU, and other powers deepening trade and infrastructure ties with Africa, AGOA has served as a soft power bridge — reinforcing America’s economic presence and influence.

Letting the program expire, says the Center for Global Development (CGD), would “undermine U.S. credibility” and weaken its ability to compete for partnerships in emerging sectors such as critical minerals, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure.

A recent CSIS report emphasizes that extending AGOA is vital to U.S. mineral diplomacy. Africa’s rich deposits of lithium, cobalt, and rare earths are critical to the green transition, and stable trade frameworks like AGOA help secure supply chain cooperation.

“AGOA is not just about clothing exports anymore,” the report notes. “It’s about positioning the U.S. as a reliable partner in Africa’s industrial future.”

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Experts Push for Reform, Not Just Renewal

While the urgency to renew AGOA is clear, experts argue that a simple extension is not enough. Many now advocate for an “AGOA 2.0” — a modernized version that reflects today’s global realities.

Think tanks like CGD and the Stimson Center propose several reforms:

• Simplify rules of origin to make it easier for African manufacturers to qualify for duty-free status.

• Align AGOA with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to encourage regional value chains rather than fragmented national exports.

• Lengthen eligibility review cycles, reducing uncertainty for investors.

• Promote diversification beyond textiles, targeting sectors such as agritech, green energy, and digital services.

“AGOA needs to evolve from a unilateral favor to a true partnership,” notes CGD policy analyst Gyude Moore, a former Liberian minister. “The next phase must empower African producers to move up the value chain, not just supply raw materials.”

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Critics Call for a Rethink

Not all observers are optimistic about AGOA’s continuation. Some U.S. policymakers argue that the program has outlived its purpose, citing limited diversification and “preference erosion” — where global tariff cuts have reduced the relative advantage of AGOA benefits.

A CFR backgrounder points out that despite two decades of preferential access, most AGOA exports still consist of crude oil and raw materials, rather than high-value manufactured goods.

Critics believe this shows that trade preferences alone cannot drive industrial transformation without stronger domestic policies and infrastructure support in Africa.

Moreover, the current U.S. trade environment has shifted toward reciprocity. With Washington prioritizing bilateral and sectoral deals, some analysts fear AGOA’s nonreciprocal model may no longer fit the political mood.

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A Narrow Window for Action

Time, however, is running out. For many exporters, each passing week without renewal creates deeper uncertainty.

Industry associations across Africa — including the Kenya Association of Manufacturers and South Africa’s Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) — have urged Washington to adopt at least a one-year bridge extension while longer-term reforms are debated.

This approach, backed by several members of Congress, would prevent immediate economic disruption while allowing time to design a modernized successor framework.

“Renewal is not charity; it’s strategic,” says trade consultant Dr. Donald Kaberuka, former president of the African Development Bank. “If the U.S. lets AGOA collapse, it will take years to rebuild confidence.”

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The Road Ahead

Whether AGOA survives or not will depend on the next few months of political negotiations in Washington.

If a short-term extension is passed before the end of the year, it could stabilize African markets and buy time for deeper talks.

But if the lapse drags on, the economic and diplomatic fallout could be significant — undermining two decades of progress in U.S.–Africa relations.

Ultimately, AGOA’s future is not just about trade preferences. It is a test of America’s long-term commitment to Africa’s economic transformation.

As UNCTAD puts it, “The way the U.S. handles AGOA renewal will signal whether Africa remains a partner in global trade — or an afterthought in an era of shifting alliances.”

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